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BLAST Slam IV · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Axe
Axesignature
33 · 28 games
61%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Whitemon · 23 games
52%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 19 games
68%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 19 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
Saksa · 19 games
53%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 18 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 17 games
53%

MOUZ

Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 44 games
52%
Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 41 game
66%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 32 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 31 game
65%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 28 games
75%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 23 games
74%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
713 picks · 345 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
594 picks · 629 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
497 picks · 255 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
411 picks · 1167 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
405 picks · 255 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
404 picks · 685 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
392 picks · 403 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
349 picks · 396 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:24
Tundra Esports 54%MOUZ 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by MOUZ in 36:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerPure~
54% · 128 games49% · 169 games
Shadow FiendMidOne
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
49% · 305 games46% · 49 games
JuggernautCrystallis
Juggernaut
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
54% · 326 games47% · 285 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
51% · 370 games50% · 391 game
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Bane
BaneWhitemon
51% · 168 games48% · 403 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct48:14
Tundra Esports 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPure~
50% · 170 games59% · 43 games
JuggernautCrystallis
Juggernaut
Batrider
Batriderbzm
53% · 344 games51% · 151 game
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Axe
Axe33
51% · 125 games49% · 230 games
DawnbreakerBOOM
Dawnbreaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAri
48% · 180 games52% · 247 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
45% · 252 games47% · 400 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct32:22
Tundra Esports 54%MOUZ 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axe
Axe33
56% · 172 games44% · 71 game
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Invoker
Invokerbzm
51% · 217 games44% · 255 games
Queen of PainMidOne
Queen of Pain
Abaddon
AbaddonPure~
58% · 274 games46% · 413 games
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderAri
55% · 428 games50% · 250 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonWhitemon
49% · 253 games48% · 355 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 59%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3