?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Topson · 11 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Topson · 10 games
70%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 10 games
70%
Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 10 games
80%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 9 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 9 games
44%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Topson · 8 games
50%

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 23 games
61%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 23 games
35%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 19 games
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
pma · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 16 games
38%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 15 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 14 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
336 picks · 502 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
292 picks · 431 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
283 picks · 243 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
275 picks · 195 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
263 picks · 455 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
255 picks · 353 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
253 picks · 400 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 735 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:49
Tundra Esports 76%Natus Vincere Junior 24%
The model gave 76% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:09:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidPure~
53% · 132 games50% · 165 games
Naga Sirengotthejuice
Naga Siren
Primal Beast
Primal BeastTopson
50% · 220 games46% · 176 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Magnus
MagnusMinD_ContRoL
53% · 154 games57% · 88 games
Dragon KnightNiku
Dragon Knight
Techies
Techies9Class
47% · 242 games45% · 196 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritWhitemon
57% · 106 games45% · 229 games
PugnaRiddys
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct40:30
Tundra Esports 77%Natus Vincere Junior 23%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 53:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPure~
53% · 87 games49% · 113 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Sniper
SniperTopson
55% · 28 games52% · 77 games
Dragon KnightNiku
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsMinD_ContRoL
47% · 143 games50% · 70 games
Broodmotherpma
Broodmother
Hoodwink
Hoodwink9Class
52% · 126 games46% · 126 games
SnapfireDaze
Snapfire
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritWhitemon
50% · 94 games50% · 92 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 88%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2