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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 45 games
76%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 36 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 29 games
66%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 26 games
62%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 25 games
52%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 25 games
72%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 24 games
63%

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 33 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 28 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 26 games
42%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 25 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 24 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 22 games
68%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
386 picks · 703 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 375 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
321 picks · 467 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
320 picks · 251 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
320 picks · 620 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
317 picks · 209 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
307 picks · 350 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
293 picks · 539 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total69% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:23
Tundra Esports 61%OG 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherPure~
58% · 53 games49% · 59 games
WeaverTimado
Weaver
Beastmaster
BeastmasterRAMZES666
48% · 167 games48% · 115 games
Pangolierbzm
Pangolier
Sand King
Sand KingTopson
40% · 20 games50% · 72 games
DoomWisper
Doom
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
51% · 55 games52% · 9 games
Nyx AssassinAri
Nyx Assassin
Marci
Marci9Class
58% · 105 games44% · 145 games
PhoenixCeb
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct42:21
Tundra Esports 62%OG 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherPure~
48% · 48 games44% · 113 games
Templar Assassinbzm
Templar Assassin
Snapfire
SnapfireTopson
47% · 138 games45% · 52 games
Chaos KnightTimado
Chaos Knight
Mars
MarsRAMZES666
50% · 143 games52% · 60 games
Monkey KingAri
Monkey King
Chen
ChenWhitemon
56% · 55 games52% · 89 games
BrewmasterWisper
Brewmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin9Class
52% · 24 games54% · 94 games
ClockwerkCeb
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 69%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2