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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PlayTimeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 34 games
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 33 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 31 game
65%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 29 games
66%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
bzm · 27 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 26 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
33 · 26 games
50%

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 15 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Elmisho · 12 games
42%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 10 games
70%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Scofield · 9 games
56%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Wits · 9 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 9 games
67%
Axe
Axe
Frank · 8 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 8 games
13%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
542 picks · 330 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
504 picks · 588 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 372 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
409 picks · 223 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
386 picks · 280 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
348 picks · 880 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
339 picks · 306 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
338 picks · 852 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 52%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:43
Tundra Esports 63%PlayTime 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by PlayTime in 38:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerbzm
50% · 85 games52% · 331 game
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Ursa
UrsaPure~
51% · 203 games54% · 240 games
WindrangerWits
Windranger
Batrider
Batrider33
51% · 310 games51% · 167 games
DoomFrank
Doom
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
44% · 262 games51% · 102 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Lion
LionAri
47% · 126 games51% · 146 games
SilencerElmisho
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct46:37
Tundra Esports 65%PlayTime 35%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:05:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckbzm
49% · 403 games49% · 358 games
MuertaWits
Muerta
Windranger
WindrangerPure~
59% · 259 games46% · 236 games
ViperDarkMago
Viper
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
47% · 288 games48% · 379 games
UnderlordFrank
Underlord
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
54% · 476 games48% · 391 game
RubickScofield
Rubick
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
48% · 458 games52% · 520 games
BatriderElmisho
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct39:17
Tundra Esports 60%PlayTime 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersaw33
54% · 194 games48% · 105 games
KunkkaDarkMago
Kunkka
Kez
KezPure~
46% · 190 games53% · 216 games
WindrangerWits
Windranger
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
44% · 346 games49% · 187 games
TidehunterFrank
Tidehunter
Techies
TechiesWhitemon
44% · 144 games51% · 395 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkAri
51% · 183 games58% · 154 games
EnchantressElmisho
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 76%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3