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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PSG Questloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 50 games
78%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 39 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 34 games
71%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
81%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 24 games
63%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 24 games
71%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 23 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 23 games
52%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 26 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 24 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 22 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 22 games
73%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 21 game
57%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 21 game
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
41%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Malik · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
419 picks · 632 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
377 picks · 396 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
367 picks · 479 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
365 picks · 153 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 589 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
321 picks · 695 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
320 picks · 154 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
317 picks · 461 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:14
Tundra Esports 54%PSG Quest 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightPure~
54% · 96 games48% · 172 games
WeaverTA2000
Weaver
Sniper
SniperTopson
43% · 52 games43% · 190 games
Dragon KnightNo!ob
Dragon Knight
Dark Seer
Dark SeerRAMZES666
54% · 152 games52% · 152 games
BrewmasterMalik
Brewmaster
Rubick
RubickWhitemon
48% · 297 games45% · 196 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
Clockwerk9Class
52% · 220 games60% · 107 games
Elder TitanDukalis
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed16:45
Tundra Esports 53%PSG Quest 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 46:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherPure~
36% · 48 games58% · 74 games
WeaverTA2000
Weaver
Dark Seer
Dark SeerRAMZES666
58% · 174 games49% · 164 games
Dragon KnightMalik
Dragon Knight
Arc Warden
Arc WardenTopson
48% · 27 games55% · 134 games
Primal BeastNo!ob
Primal Beast
Techies
TechiesWhitemon
44% · 181 game51% · 96 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Terrorblade
Terrorblade9Class
43% · 135 games55% · 97 games
DisruptorDukalis
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct32:12
Tundra Esports 56%PSG Quest 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightPure~
50% · 82 games51% · 114 games
WeaverTA2000
Weaver
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritTopson
49% · 163 games57% · 67 games
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
Mars
MarsRAMZES666
45% · 182 games50% · 60 games
UnderlordMalik
Underlord
Elder Titan
Elder TitanWhitemon
54% · 95 games49% · 313 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Techies
Techies9Class
44% · 236 games55% · 204 games
Crystal MaidenDukalis
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3