Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Puckoften banned
Nine · 15 games
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 14 games
Clockwerksignature
Sneyking · 13 games
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 12 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 10 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 9 games
Winter Wyvern
Nine · 8 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
427 picks · 166 bans
Ancient Apparition
315 picks · 471 bans
Nyx Assassin
304 picks · 618 bans
Mars
302 picks · 526 bans
Puck
298 picks · 703 bans
Enchantress
266 picks · 341 bans
Hoodwink
265 picks · 111 bans
Lina
257 picks · 333 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:12
Tundra Esports 51%PuckChamp 49%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:26.
Game 2prediction correct23:29
Tundra Esports 51%PuckChamp 49%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 51%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2