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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 39 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 32 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 30 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 29 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 29 games
66%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 23 games
61%
Techies
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 23 games
70%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 35 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 30 games
60%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 23 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 22 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 21 game
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 20 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 689 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
510 picks · 332 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
453 picks · 975 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
411 picks · 930 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
399 picks · 861 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 352 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
384 picks · 1003 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
381 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total55% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:10
Tundra Esports 55%Shopify Rebellion 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
49% · 321 game48% · 228 games
MorphlingArteezy
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierNine
52% · 497 games52% · 85 games
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Underlord
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
54% · 164 games45% · 272 games
SnapfireAbed
Snapfire
Enigma
EnigmaAui_2000
60% · 266 games43% · 233 games
EnchantressFly
Enchantress
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSneyking
56% · 97 games42% · 527 games
RubickCr1t-
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed9:26
Tundra Esports 51%Shopify Rebellion 49%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 43:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSkiter
47% · 126 games56% · 158 games
LeshracArteezy
Leshrac
Underlord
Underlord33
50% · 81 game51% · 168 games
Templar AssassinAbed
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierNine
43% · 232 games58% · 53 games
Legion CommanderSabeRLight-
Legion Commander
Enchantress
EnchantressAui_2000
47% · 173 games54% · 70 games
IoFly
Io
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSneyking
48% · 11 games49% · 174 games
Skywrath MageCr1t-
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2