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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 42 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 35 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 33 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 31 game
65%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 30 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
55%
Techies
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 25 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nine · 24 games
58%

Shopify Rebellion

Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 35 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Cr1t- · 32 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 26 games
65%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
65%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 22 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 21 game
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 20 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
645 picks · 688 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
528 picks · 345 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
447 picks · 960 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
430 picks · 939 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
411 picks · 861 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 867 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
390 picks · 998 bans
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
388 picks · 344 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 30%
Hero pool strength52% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total78% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:19
Tundra Esports 66%Shopify Rebellion 34%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmother33
52% · 195 games45% · 242 games
TerrorbladeArteezy
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierNine
54% · 357 games45% · 427 games
SnapfireAbed
Snapfire
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSkiter
54% · 162 games46% · 171 game
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderSneyking
52% · 341 game49% · 143 games
VenomancerFly
Venomancer
Enchantress
EnchantressAui_2000
52% · 317 games51% · 389 games
MiranaCr1t-
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 78%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1