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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spider Pigzsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 15 games
80%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 13 games
77%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 13 games
62%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Nine · 12 games
83%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 12 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 11 games
91%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 11 games
64%

Spider Pigzs

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 20 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolier
No!ob · 17 games
47%
Lion
Lion
OmaR · 15 games
40%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
lil pleb · 15 games
33%
Lina
Linaoften banned
No!ob · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
No!ob · 13 games
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 13 games
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
OmaR · 12 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
374 picks · 271 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 534 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
314 picks · 201 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
308 picks · 718 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
263 picks · 337 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
241 picks · 308 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
234 picks · 154 bans
49%
Io
Io
229 picks · 588 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 30%
Hero pool strength67% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:19
Tundra Esports 76%Spider Pigzs 24%
The model gave 76% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSkiter
49% · 134 games45% · 99 games
Phantom AssassinThuG
Phantom Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
55% · 101 game52% · 120 games
Queen of PainNo!ob
Queen of Pain
Puck
PuckNine
48% · 333 games38% · 201 game
Dragon KnightFunn1k
Dragon Knight
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerSneyking
55% · 84 games52% · 228 games
GrimstrokeOmaR
Grimstroke
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterFata
53% · 121 game51% · 125 games
Disruptordnz
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct48:28
Tundra Esports 74%Spider Pigzs 26%
The model gave 74% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
54% · 201 game56% · 140 games
MedusaThuG
Medusa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNine
42% · 161 game48% · 151 game
InvokerNo!ob
Invoker
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
45% · 65 games54% · 81 game
Spirit BreakerFunn1k
Spirit Breaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSneyking
54% · 125 games43% · 232 games
GrimstrokeOmaR
Grimstroke
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFata
48% · 170 games55% · 118 games
Disruptordnz
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 87%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2