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The International 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 38 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
Whitemon · 33 games
76%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
59%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 27 games
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 26 games
62%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 24 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 23 games
61%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 22 games
77%

Talon Esports

Razor
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 17 games
53%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
47%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 14 games
71%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 13 games
62%
Sven
Svensignature
Akashi · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Jhocam · 13 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
409 picks · 375 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
383 picks · 429 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 530 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
341 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
333 picks · 749 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
319 picks · 768 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 642 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
309 picks · 658 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:33
Tundra Esports 56%Talon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTopson
59% · 88 games52% · 112 games
MiranaAkashi
Mirana
Morphling
MorphlingPure~
44% · 203 games53% · 7 games
RikiMikoto
Riki
Mars
MarsRAMZES666
49% · 191 game53% · 252 games
Dragon KnightWs
Dragon Knight
Enchantress
EnchantressSaksa
43% · 182 games54% · 105 games
MarciPonyo
Marci
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
47% · 101 game49% · 289 games
Shadow DemonJhocam
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed13:34
Tundra Esports 57%Talon Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 24:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistRAMZES666
53% · 158 games49% · 138 games
WindrangerAkashi
Windranger
Luna
LunaPure~
53% · 236 games50% · 176 games
Dragon KnightMikoto
Dragon Knight
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetTopson
57% · 153 games47% · 130 games
MarsWs
Mars
Sniper
SniperSaksa
55% · 86 games48% · 205 games
PhoenixJhocam
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
46% · 195 games42% · 179 games
EnchantressPonyo
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2