Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Asterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Doomoften banned
33 · 39 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 34 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 30 games
Mirana
Sneyking · 30 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 29 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 23 games
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 23 games
Team Aster
Rubick
Fantasy · 31 game
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 30 games
Doomoften banned
Xxs · 28 games
Enchantresssignature
BoBoKa · 28 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Xxs · 26 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
SumaiL · 26 games
Snapfire
SumaiL · 24 games
Disruptor
Fantasy · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
638 picks · 687 bans
Rubick
512 picks · 337 bans
Doom
451 picks · 976 bans
Batrider
418 picks · 932 bans
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 863 bans
Void Spirit
391 picks · 351 bans
Beastmaster
384 picks · 1004 bans
Pugna
382 picks · 448 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total64% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:27
Tundra Esports 58%Team Aster 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Aster in 31:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracNine
Monkey KingMonet
Dark Seer33
SnapfireSumaiL
BloodseekerSkiter
Legion CommanderXxs
VisageAui_2000
ClockwerkFantasy
IoSneyking
RubickKaka
Game 2prediction missed3:21
Tundra Esports 57%Team Aster 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Aster in 26:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSkiter
MedusaMonet
Doom33
Legion CommanderXxs
Dragon KnightNine
WindrangerSumaiL
BatriderSneyking
RubickKaka
EnigmaAui_2000
ClockwerkFantasy
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 64%
Series resultTeam Aster 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2