FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO5
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 3:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Team Falconsloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 32 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 31 game
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 30 games
Doomsignature
33 · 30 games
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
Sand Kingoften banned
33 · 24 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 24 games
Beastmastersignature
33 · 21 game
Team Falcons
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 40 games
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 36 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 35 games
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 31 game
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
474 picks · 405 bans
Phoenix
462 picks · 565 bans
Batrider
446 picks · 551 bans
Clockwerk
426 picks · 535 bans
Gyrocopter
416 picks · 777 bans
Tiny
411 picks · 452 bans
Lion
406 picks · 232 bans
Magnus
398 picks · 857 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 8
Model total51% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:45
Tundra Esports 49%Team Falcons 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:06:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invokerbzm
PuckMalr1ne
Beastmaster33
BristlebackATF
Magnusdyrachyo
SpectreSkiter
MuertaWhitemon
EnchantressSneyking
ClockwerkSaksa
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
Game 2prediction missed16:52
Tundra Esports 53%Team Falcons 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 50:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Dragon KnightSkiter
Earthshakerbzm
MarsATF
Bristleback33
PangolierMalr1ne
Shadow DemonSaksa
RikiCr1t-
MuertaWhitemon
PhoenixSneyking
Game 3prediction correct26:23
Tundra Esports 53%Team Falcons 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Dragon KnightSkiter
Sand King33
SlardarATF
Tinybzm
PangolierMalr1ne
RikiSaksa
Dark WillowCr1t-
PhoenixWhitemon
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Game 4prediction correct36:12
Tundra Esports 56%Team Falcons 44%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 25:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster33
BloodseekerSkiter
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
TinyMalr1ne
Monkey Kingbzm
MarsATF
Bounty HunterSaksa
Dark WillowCr1t-
WarlockWhitemon
ZeusSneyking
Game 5prediction missed27:6
Tundra Esports 50%Team Falcons 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingdyrachyo
BristlebackATF
Invokerbzm
Dragon KnightSkiter
Sand King33
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
RikiSaksa
SnapfireCr1t-
PhoenixWhitemon
BatriderSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 51%
Series resultTundra Esports 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5