?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 33 games
58%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 27 games
78%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 25 games
76%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 21 game
67%
Pugna
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 19 games
68%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 19 games
63%

Team Falcons

Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 38 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
68%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 31 game
71%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
71%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 29 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 25 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 25 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
637 picks · 997 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
530 picks · 447 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
465 picks · 639 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
446 picks · 1046 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 486 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
446 picks · 275 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 515 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
423 picks · 582 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 7
Model total50% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:52
Tundra Esports 49%Team Falcons 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:02:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Largo
Largo33
45% · 61 game47% · 219 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Void Spirit
Void SpiritPure~
49% · 143 games50% · 129 games
EarthshakerMalr1ne
Earthshaker
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbzm
48% · 231 game62% · 243 games
Shadow FiendSkiter
Shadow Fiend
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
47% · 482 games50% · 126 games
ClockwerkSneyking
Clockwerk
Marci
MarciAri
51% · 156 games49% · 356 games
RingmasterCr1t-
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed26:46
Tundra Esports 52%Team Falcons 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 47:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckPure~
53% · 473 games43% · 497 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Largo
Largo33
55% · 86 games49% · 141 game
ViperATF
Viper
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendbzm
54% · 232 games45% · 188 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
52% · 572 games47% · 228 games
PhoenixSneyking
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAri
55% · 262 games48% · 571 game
TuskCr1t-
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 50%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2