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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 44 games
66%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 43 games
84%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 32 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 31 game
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 31 game
81%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 30 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 29 games
69%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 29 games
62%

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 38 games
66%
Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 36 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 33 games
79%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 30 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 27 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 24 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
46%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 697 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
381 picks · 382 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
378 picks · 750 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
352 picks · 205 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
344 picks · 643 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
341 picks · 603 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
313 picks · 582 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
310 picks · 410 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 48%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 6
Model total51% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:34
Tundra Esports 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCrystallis
51% · 273 games49% · 339 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Sand King
Sand Kingbzm
56% · 226 games51% · 245 games
Ember SpiritNisha
Ember Spirit
Abaddon
AbaddonMidOne
44% · 108 games51% · 123 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
51% · 334 games48% · 252 games
MuertaBoxi
Muerta
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSaksa
52% · 142 games46% · 124 games
SilenceriNSaNiA
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed37:33
Tundra Esports 47%Team Liquid 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 58:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinCrystallis
54% · 156 games46% · 148 games
Phantom AssassinmiCKe
Phantom Assassin
Puck
Puckbzm
48% · 233 games55% · 184 games
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
Dark Seer
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMidOne
44% · 106 games51% · 203 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
47% · 268 games58% · 148 games
EnigmaiNSaNiA
Enigma
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSaksa
45% · 132 games51% · 212 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed20:41
Tundra Esports 51%Team Liquid 49%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinCrystallis
56% · 123 games49% · 137 games
Phantom AssassinmiCKe
Phantom Assassin
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
41% · 391 game54% · 231 game
Primal BeastNisha
Primal Beast
Sand King
Sand KingMidOne
55% · 195 games53% · 200 games
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
Dark Seer
Medusa
MedusaSaksa
42% · 133 games47% · 77 games
SilenceriNSaNiA
Silencer
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionWhitemon
57% · 88 games48% · 285 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 51%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3