DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 32 games
Mirana
Sneyking · 31 game
Doomsignature
33 · 30 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 29 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 21 game
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Team Secret
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
Techiesoften banned
yamich · 11 games
Mirana
Puppey · 10 games
Pugnaoften banned
yamich · 10 games
Tusk
yamich · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Armel · 8 games
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 8 games
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
751 picks · 630 bans
Disruptor
608 picks · 536 bans
Doom
536 picks · 1061 bans
Beastmaster
534 picks · 1324 bans
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1171 bans
Pangolier
460 picks · 956 bans
Techies
457 picks · 483 bans
Enchantress
440 picks · 633 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total90% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:27
Tundra Esports 77%Team Secret 23%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 40:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeSkiter
Anti-MageCrystallis
Medusa33
Void SpiritArmel
MarciMalr1ne
MagnusFbz
DoomImmersion
Pugnayamich
Shadow DemonSneyking
Crystal MaidenPuppey
Game 2prediction missed10:22
Tundra Esports 79%Team Secret 21%
The model gave 79% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 37:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidSkiter
MorphlingArmel
PangolierMalr1ne
AbaddonCrystallis
Visage33
MagnusFbz
TechiesSneyking
ChenPuppey
Keeper of the LightImmersion
Rubickyamich
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 90%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2