Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Doomoften banned
33 · 41 game
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 34 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 32 games
Mirana
Sneyking · 30 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 30 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 25 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nine · 24 games
Team Secret
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 21 game
Snapfire
Armel · 15 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 12 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
643 picks · 687 bans
Rubick
522 picks · 342 bans
Doom
443 picks · 961 bans
Batrider
428 picks · 933 bans
Ember Spirit
408 picks · 860 bans
Storm Spirit
391 picks · 860 bans
Beastmaster
388 picks · 997 bans
Void Spirit
388 picks · 345 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 25%
Hero pool strength57% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total68% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:6
Tundra Esports 60%Team Secret 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenSkiter
TimbersawFbz
Visage33
JuggernautCrystallis
MeepoNine
Storm SpiritArmel
EnchantressAui_2000
Keeper of the Lightyamich
RubickSneyking
EnigmaPuppey
Game 2prediction missed17:44
Tundra Esports 59%Team Secret 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 49:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeSkiter
Templar AssassinArmel
Broodmother33
BloodseekerCrystallis
Arc WardenNine
EnigmaFbz
ChenAui_2000
Bounty Hunteryamich
SnapfireSneyking
VenomancerPuppey
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 68%
Accuracy by game1 of 2