OGA Dota PIT Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 19 games
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 17 games
Batridersignature
Nine · 15 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Sneyking · 14 games
Lunasignature
Skiter · 12 games
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Nine · 12 games
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 34 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 27 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
Tinysignature
Mira · 22 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Lionsignature
Mira · 20 games
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 20 games
Axesignature
Collapse · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
381 picks · 171 bans
Hoodwink
349 picks · 127 bans
Lina
262 picks · 436 bans
Nyx Assassin
261 picks · 522 bans
Dragon Knight
254 picks · 341 bans
Luna
253 picks · 345 bans
Winter Wyvern
250 picks · 245 bans
Mars
238 picks · 403 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 72%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:29
Tundra Esports 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan33
Monkey KingYatoro
Faceless VoidSkiter
Ember SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
InvokerNine
MagnusCollapse
SnapfireSneyking
Dark WillowMira
GyrocopterFata
BaneMiposhka
Game 2prediction correct17:36
Tundra Esports 44%Team Spirit 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 47:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan33
MagnusYatoro
SlarkSkiter
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Ember SpiritNine
Sand KingCollapse
Shadow DemonSneyking
Dark WillowMira
GyrocopterFata
BaneMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2