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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 34 games
62%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 33 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 33 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
Whitemon · 33 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 31 game
71%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 28 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 26 games
69%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Saksa · 24 games
71%

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 29 games
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 28 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 25 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
83%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Tusk
Tusk
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Larl · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lion
rue · 21 game
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
512 picks · 629 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
510 picks · 804 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
486 picks · 491 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
458 picks · 563 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
432 picks · 368 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
427 picks · 1019 bans
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
407 picks · 769 bans
56%
Lich
Lich
390 picks · 210 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total65% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:21
Tundra Esports 58%Team Spirit 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdyrachyo
55% · 52 games46% · 112 games
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
46% · 145 games49% · 214 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Abaddon
Abaddon33
44% · 28 games49% · 49 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
50% · 159 games63% · 40 games
Rikirue
Riki
Marci
MarciSaksa
47% · 51 game56% · 20 games
Winter WyvernMiposhka
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct39:18
Tundra Esports 58%Team Spirit 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdyrachyo
50% · 90 games50% · 59 games
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Primal Beast
Primal Beastbzm
49% · 140 games53% · 87 games
SlardarCollapse
Slardar
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
50% · 97 games48% · 150 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernWhitemon
56% · 12 games60% · 29 games
Bounty Hunterrue
Bounty Hunter
Marci
MarciSaksa
48% · 70 games44% · 84 games
JakiroMiposhka
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 65%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2