?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Yandexwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Axe
Axesignature
33 · 27 games
63%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Saksa · 23 games
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 20 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Saksa · 19 games
58%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 18 games
56%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 17 games
71%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 17 games
65%

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 19 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 16 games
81%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Noticed · 15 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 15 games
47%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 13 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 13 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Malady · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tusksignature
prblms · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
678 picks · 329 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
572 picks · 586 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
446 picks · 231 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
403 picks · 1154 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 656 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
366 picks · 255 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
350 picks · 917 bans
46%
Pugna
Pugna
349 picks · 396 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Team Yandex
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:15
Tundra Esports 61%Team Yandex 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezPure~
48% · 11 games52% · 258 games
GyrocopterWatson
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
46% · 485 games43% · 341 game
BeastmasterChira JUNIOR
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand King33
49% · 267 games56% · 126 games
SlardarNoticed
Slardar
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterAri
52% · 110 games52% · 314 games
TuskMalady
Tusk
Jakiro
JakiroWhitemon
47% · 348 games55% · 182 games
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed9:38
Tundra Esports 64%Team Yandex 36%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 39:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPure~
51% · 375 games48% · 323 games
BeastmasterWatson
Beastmaster
Axe
Axe33
57% · 139 games47% · 178 games
Queen of PainChira JUNIOR
Queen of Pain
Sand King
Sand Kingbzm
55% · 240 games43% · 348 games
PangolierNoticed
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertaWhitemon
49% · 338 games47% · 57 games
SlarkSaksa
Slark
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterAri
55% · 118 games48% · 304 games
GyrocopterMalady
Gyrocopter
Game 3prediction missed9:40
Tundra Esports 62%Team Yandex 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 29:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPure~
52% · 264 games45% · 84 games
WeaverWatson
Weaver
Mars
Marsbzm
48% · 218 games47% · 468 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
50% · 367 games47% · 244 games
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderAri
51% · 280 games50% · 317 games
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Elder Titan
Elder TitanWhitemon
52% · 118 games57% · 134 games
Bounty HunterSaksa
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 72%
Series resultTeam Yandex 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3