?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Yandexloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 42 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 30 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 30 games
73%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
71%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 26 games
77%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 26 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
33 · 25 games
68%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 24 games
63%

Team Yandex

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Malady · 42 games
74%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Malady · 39 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Saksa · 30 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Watson · 27 games
74%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 24 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 23 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
665 picks · 826 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
578 picks · 593 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
472 picks · 415 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
471 picks · 320 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1082 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 695 bans
59%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
386 picks · 998 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 625 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total56% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:40
Tundra Esports 53%Team Yandex 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 44:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPure~
49% · 104 games49% · 119 games
WeaverWatson
Weaver
Earthshaker
Earthshakerbzm
48% · 138 games49% · 158 games
UnderlordNoticed
Underlord
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
47% · 187 games48% · 232 games
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAri
53% · 422 games59% · 280 games
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Shadow Shaman
Ringmaster
RingmasterWhitemon
49% · 498 games49% · 560 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct46:28
Tundra Esports 55%Team Yandex 45%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 51:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendPure~
52% · 247 games50% · 147 games
InvokerChira JUNIOR
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
45% · 183 games50% · 137 games
KezWatson
Kez
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner33
51% · 321 game44% · 157 games
Primal BeastNoticed
Primal Beast
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
50% · 158 games52% · 405 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAri
53% · 90 games52% · 153 games
BaneMalady
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2