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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 25 games
64%
Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 21 game
81%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 19 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 18 games
72%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 18 games
67%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 17 games
65%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 17 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 15 games
93%

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 20 games
85%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 18 games
89%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 18 games
78%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 16 games
88%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 15 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 14 games
79%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 13 games
92%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Sacred · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
466 picks · 633 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
450 picks · 282 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 493 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
400 picks · 531 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
360 picks · 798 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 552 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 555 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 509 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 78%
Hero pool strength55% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:30
Tundra Esports 51%Thunder Awaken 49%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:04:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
48% · 107 games50% · 311 games
KunkkaDarkMago
Kunkka
Mars
MarsNine
47% · 282 games52% · 111 games
Chaos KnightPakazs
Chaos Knight
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
64% · 111 games52% · 75 games
BrewmasterSacred
Brewmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
47% · 62 games41% · 24 games
LichPanda
Lich
Snapfire
SnapfireSaksa
48% · 138 games47% · 179 games
RubickMatthew
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed32:30
Tundra Esports 48%Thunder Awaken 52%
The model gave 52% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSkiter
48% · 231 game48% · 102 games
MagnusPakazs
Magnus
Lycan
Lycan33
48% · 101 game54% · 254 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierNine
50% · 329 games49% · 193 games
Sand KingSacred
Sand King
Snapfire
SnapfireSneyking
46% · 274 games52% · 252 games
MiranaMatthew
Mirana
Monkey King
Monkey KingSaksa
47% · 294 games59% · 428 games
BanePanda
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 53%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2