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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 33 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 26 games
54%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 23 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 21 game
76%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
67%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 20 games
70%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 18 games
89%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 18 games
83%

TSM

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 22 games
68%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 14 games
79%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kasane · 13 games
85%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kasane · 11 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
45%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Timado · 11 games
55%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bryle- · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
993 picks · 672 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
659 picks · 483 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
600 picks · 948 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
558 picks · 435 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
522 picks · 356 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1142 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
510 picks · 507 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
491 picks · 344 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:18
Tundra Esports 57%TSM 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
50% · 44 games45% · 79 games
Viperbryle-
Viper
Doom
Doom33
46% · 273 games49% · 144 games
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNine
49% · 234 games54% · 239 games
Beastmasterkasane
Beastmaster
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
54% · 443 games52% · 394 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAramis
52% · 74 games47% · 212 games
DisruptorWhitemon
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct39:7
Tundra Esports 57%TSM 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSkiter
55% · 93 games47% · 93 games
Invokerbryle-
Invoker
Riki
RikiNine
54% · 138 games41% · 255 games
MarciTimado
Marci
Enigma
Enigma33
52% · 325 games53% · 352 games
Beastmasterkasane
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireAramis
42% · 509 games49% · 574 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
56% · 449 games52% · 240 games
DisruptorWhitemon
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 62%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2