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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 40 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 34 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 30 games
53%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 30 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 29 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 29 games
66%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nine · 24 games
58%
Techies
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 24 games
67%

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 48 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 26 games
50%
Lycan
Lycansignature
kasane · 18 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 17 games
65%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Whitemon · 17 games
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 16 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 15 games
47%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
644 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
519 picks · 340 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 964 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
424 picks · 929 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
406 picks · 859 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 348 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
386 picks · 1003 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 857 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 24%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:5
Tundra Esports 60%TSM 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
57% · 194 games54% · 148 games
MedusaTimado
Medusa
Snapfire
SnapfireNine
46% · 466 games50% · 239 games
Timbersawkasane
Timbersaw
Enigma
Enigma33
56% · 285 games50% · 212 games
Storm Spiritbryle-
Storm Spirit
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerSneyking
50% · 231 game43% · 667 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Enchantress
EnchantressAui_2000
48% · 381 game46% · 291 game
SilencerWhitemon
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed10:28
Tundra Esports 57%TSM 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by TSM in 34:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
51% · 55 games53% · 160 games
Leshracbryle-
Leshrac
Doom
Doom33
43% · 267 games56% · 249 games
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Razor
RazorNine
52% · 76 games52% · 123 games
Dark Seerkasane
Dark Seer
Techies
TechiesSneyking
50% · 181 game46% · 200 games
Primal BeastAri
Primal Beast
Enchantress
EnchantressAui_2000
45% · 240 games55% · 87 games
IoWhitemon
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 66%
Accuracy by game1 of 2