?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ViKin.ggloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Nine · 3 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddon
33 · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
33 · 2 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Nine · 2 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Fata · 2 games
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 2 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Skiter · 2 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 1 game
100%

ViKin.gg

Puck
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 8 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 7 games
14%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 7 games
71%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Seleri · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tobi · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Seleri · 5 games
60%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Seleri · 5 games
60%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Shad · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
287 picks · 574 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
257 picks · 324 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
227 picks · 405 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
213 picks · 167 bans
48%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
187 picks · 340 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
183 picks · 574 bans
59%
Wraith King
Wraith King
180 picks · 234 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
179 picks · 210 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:28
Tundra Esports 44%ViKin.gg 56%
The model gave 56% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 41:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
49% · 32 games40% · 7 games
LeshracBOOM
Leshrac
Monkey King
Monkey KingNine
43% · 23 games49% · 35 games
TidehunterKheZu
Tidehunter
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
little data58% · 39 games
Dragon KnightShad
Dragon Knight
Puck
PuckFata
48% · 74 games58% · 23 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
52% · 25 games
LionAramis
Lion
Game 2prediction missed24:15
Tundra Esports 42%ViKin.gg 58%
The model gave 58% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
44% · 27 games41% · 32 games
JuggernautShad
Juggernaut
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet33
44% · 34 games44% · 21 game
TimbersawKheZu
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsNine
52% · 80 games63% · 64 games
Void SpiritBOOM
Void Spirit
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterFata
30% · 8 games57% · 3 games
LionAramis
Lion
57% · 29 games
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed41:9
Tundra Esports 43%ViKin.gg 57%
The model gave 57% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSkiter
56% · 12 games48% · 21 game
UrsaShad
Ursa
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
46% · 12 games62% · 27 games
Nature's ProphetSeleri
Nature's Prophet
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNine
48% · 27 games55% · 24 games
InvokerBOOM
Invoker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeFata
34% · 32 games50% · 6 games
AxeKheZu
Axe
78% · 5 games
LionAramis
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 62%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3