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ESL One Summer 2021. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ViKin.ggloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 14 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sneyking · 9 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 8 games
88%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Sneyking · 7 games
57%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 6 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Skiter · 6 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Nine · 6 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Fata · 5 games
60%

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 24 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 23 games
70%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 20 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 18 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
BOOM · 17 games
76%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
KheZu · 16 games
81%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 15 games
87%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
375 picks · 968 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
370 picks · 200 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
358 picks · 581 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 358 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
299 picks · 174 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
287 picks · 216 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
279 picks · 619 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
266 picks · 455 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 80%
Hero pool strength58% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total77% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:11
Tundra Esports 32%ViKin.gg 68%
The model gave 68% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautSkiter
40% · 54 games64% · 37 games
Templar AssassinBOOM
Templar Assassin
Batrider
BatriderNine
43% · 38 games56% · 27 games
LifestealerShad
Lifestealer
Magnus
Magnus33
64% · 23 games51% · 71 game
Centaur WarrunnerKheZu
Centaur Warrunner
Venomancer
VenomancerSneyking
44% · 5 games50% · 72 games
TinyAramis
Tiny
Snapfire
SnapfireFata
46% · 99 games50% · 12 games
HoodwinkSeleri
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed35:20
Tundra Esports 34%ViKin.gg 66%
The model gave 66% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSkiter
47% · 38 games47% · 50 games
Faceless VoidShad
Faceless Void
Mars
MarsNine
47% · 98 games50% · 83 games
Ember SpiritBOOM
Ember Spirit
Batrider
Batrider33
54% · 46 games62% · 38 games
RazorKheZu
Razor
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSneyking
55% · 39 games55% · 42 games
MagnusAramis
Magnus
Snapfire
SnapfireFata
51% · 59 games41% · 67 games
Witch DoctorSeleri
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 77%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2