DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 33 games
Axesignature
33 · 25 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 25 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 23 games
Pugna
Whitemon · 21 game
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 20 games
Ursasignature
Pure~ · 19 games
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 18 games
Xtreme Gaming
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 20 games
Warlock
xNova · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 18 games
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 14 games
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
Snapfiresignature
fy · 14 games
Disruptor
xNova · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
626 picks · 960 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 432 bans
Centaur Warrunner
462 picks · 629 bans
Shadow Demon
438 picks · 986 bans
Tiny
428 picks · 467 bans
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 517 bans
Warlock
419 picks · 260 bans
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 662 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total53% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:9
Tundra Esports 50%Xtreme Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterPure~
ClinkzAme
Largo33
ViperXxs
Tinybzm
Primal BeastNothingToSay
Keeper of the LightAri
Clockwerkfy
PhoenixWhitemon
JakiroxNova
Game 2prediction missed28:34
Tundra Esports 52%Xtreme Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:19:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenPure~
TinkerNothingToSay
Timbersaw33
ClinkzAme
Dragon Knightbzm
MarsXxs
Keeper of the LightAri
JakiroxNova
PhoenixWhitemon
Hoodwinkfy
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 53%
Accuracy by game0 of 2