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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Twisted Mindswin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JustBetterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Twisted Minds

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Pablo · 16 games
31%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Pablo · 15 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Shad · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pablo · 13 games
46%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 12 games
25%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Handsken · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Adzantick · 12 games
58%
Sven
Sven
Shad · 12 games
42%

JustBetter

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Astral · 6 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Astral · 6 games
33%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 6 games
17%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 5 games
20%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ThuG · 5 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
479 picks · 228 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 752 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
436 picks · 416 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 631 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
398 picks · 732 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 167 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
361 picks · 1013 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 720 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% Twisted Minds
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% JustBetter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:23
Twisted Minds 49%JustBetter 51%
The model gave 51% on JustBetter — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 51:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightShad
45% · 44 games53% · 178 games
GyrocopterFocus
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAdzantick
51% · 157 games47% · 186 games
PuckThuG
Puck
Dark Seer
Dark SeerStoneBank
55% · 111 games49% · 52 games
UnderlordSkyLark
Underlord
Tiny
TinyPablo
46% · 218 games54% · 87 games
Skywrath MageAstral
Skywrath Mage
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionHandsken
51% · 57 games47% · 84 games
IoSsaSpartan
Io
Game 2prediction missed40:13
Twisted Minds 48%JustBetter 52%
The model gave 52% on JustBetter — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 32:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinShad
48% · 149 games40% · 45 games
Chaos KnightFocus
Chaos Knight
Slardar
SlardarStoneBank
59% · 85 games53% · 215 games
Storm SpiritThuG
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAdzantick
59% · 216 games48% · 55 games
ViperSkyLark
Viper
Venomancer
VenomancerHandsken
50% · 60 games50% · 172 games
ClockwerkAstral
Clockwerk
Rubick
RubickPablo
44% · 260 games47% · 283 games
BatriderSsaSpartan
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteJustBetter · 57%
Series resultTwisted Minds 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2