Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Twisted Mindsloss 0:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Ram Squadwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Twisted Minds
Alchemistoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Bloodseekeroften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Dark Willow
QBFY · 1 game
Disruptor
Nagato · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Mirana
QBFY · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Coblackk · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
Nagato · 1 game
Ram Squad
Doomoften banned
BliNcc · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
canceL^^ · 2 games
Spirit Breaker
w33 · 2 games
Techies
w33 · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
Clinkzoften banned
w33 · 1 game
Iooften banned
Flash · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
726 picks · 609 bans
Disruptor
560 picks · 489 bans
Beastmaster
437 picks · 1053 bans
Doom
425 picks · 698 bans
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 999 bans
Tiny
387 picks · 372 bans
Undying
383 picks · 606 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Ram Squad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Twisted Minds
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Twisted Minds 68%Ram Squad 32%
The model gave 68% on Twisted Minds — the game was taken by Ram Squad.
Model check result
Model favoriteTwisted Minds · 68%
Series resultRam Squad 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1