Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Twisted Mindswin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TMTrouble Makers Rebornloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Twisted Minds
No games played over 6 months.
Trouble Makers Reborn
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
740 picks · 608 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 478 bans
Beastmaster
424 picks · 1023 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 976 bans
Tiny
398 picks · 375 bans
Doom
397 picks · 657 bans
Undying
393 picks · 607 bans
Mirana
378 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Twisted Minds
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Twisted Minds
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:36
Twisted Minds 61%Trouble Makers Reborn 39%
The model gave 61% on Twisted Minds — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 46:57.
Game 2prediction correct50:13
Twisted Minds 61%Trouble Makers Reborn 39%
The model gave 61% on Twisted Minds — the game was taken by Twisted Minds in 33:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteTwisted Minds · 61%
Series resultTwisted Minds 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2