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BLAST Slam IX. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Two Movewin 1:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
PlayTimeloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Two Move

Rubick
Rubicksignature
queezy · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 5 games
100%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Htrd · 5 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
queezy · 5 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 4 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Htrd · 4 games
100%

PlayTime

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 26 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Elmisho · 18 games
72%
Doom
Doomsignature
Wits · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 14 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 14 games
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Wits · 12 games
33%
Axe
Axesignature
Frank · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
482 picks · 317 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 502 bans
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
317 picks · 386 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
314 picks · 435 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
301 picks · 624 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
290 picks · 106 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
282 picks · 117 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
276 picks · 289 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Two Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% PlayTime
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Two Move 50%PlayTime 50%
The model gave 50% on PlayTime — the game was taken by Two Move.
Model check result
Model favoritePlayTime · 50%
Series resultTwo Move 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1