European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
Two Moveloss 1:3series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Power Rangerswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Two Move
Ringmaster
Htrd · 4 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
WoE · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 2 games
Death Prophet
Ainkrad · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 2 games
Enchantress
Htrd · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
WoE · 2 games
Power Rangers
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 35 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 32 games
Chensignature
Hduo · 28 games
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 28 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 27 games
Tusk
Immersion · 22 games
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 21 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
511 picks · 302 bans
Phoenix
480 picks · 575 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 352 bans
Jakiro
429 picks · 325 bans
Tusk
370 picks · 323 bans
Rubick
354 picks · 192 bans
Puck
346 picks · 845 bans
Beastmaster
343 picks · 847 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)83% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Two Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:27
Two Move 44%Power Rangers 56%
The model gave 56% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 27:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritAinkrad
MagnusTA2000
BristlebackBb3px
AxeAlberkaaa
Faceless VoidWoE
Tinynicky`cool
Rubickqueezy
SilencerHduo
RingmasterHtrd
WindrangerImmersion
Game 2prediction missed34:19
Two Move 44%Power Rangers 56%
The model gave 56% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Two Move in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaWoE
LifestealerTA2000
Sand KingAinkrad
Tinynicky`cool
MagnusBb3px
DoomAlberkaaa
Rubickqueezy
PhoenixHduo
Winter WyvernHtrd
WindrangerImmersion
Game 3prediction correct16:49
Two Move 42%Power Rangers 58%
The model gave 58% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 37:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainAinkrad
NecrophosAlberkaaa
AlchemistWoE
MagnusTA2000
PangolierBb3px
Tinynicky`cool
Snapfirequeezy
WindrangerImmersion
Winter WyvernHtrd
LichHduo
Game 4prediction correct30:63
Two Move 43%Power Rangers 57%
The model gave 57% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 46:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreWoE
TidehunterAlberkaaa
UnderlordBb3px
MagnusTA2000
Sand KingAinkrad
Tinynicky`cool
WarlockHtrd
SilencerHduo
Lionqueezy
WindrangerImmersion
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 61%
Series resultPower Rangers 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4