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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Two Moveloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Two Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 8 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 8 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
queezy · 6 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 6 games
33%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Htrd · 6 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Htrd · 5 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
queezy · 5 games
80%

Yellow Submarine

Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 29 games
69%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 26 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
not me · 17 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Xakoda · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Rain · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 15 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
67%
Kez
Kezsignature
Shigetsu · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
487 picks · 292 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
357 picks · 159 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
356 picks · 154 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 474 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
301 picks · 299 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 466 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
286 picks · 263 bans
59%
Undying
Undying
268 picks · 367 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Two Move
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:37
Two Move 44%Yellow Submarine 56%
The model gave 56% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 32:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAinkrad
42% · 298 games56% · 29 games
Broodmothermangekyou
Broodmother
Luna
LunaWoE
49% · 166 games50% · 334 games
TinyShigetsu
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBb3px
46% · 164 games56% · 155 games
InvokerRain
Invoker
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
48% · 307 games53% · 552 games
Hoodwinkprblms
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorHtrd
48% · 324 games55% · 189 games
BaneXakoda
Bane
Game 2prediction correct18:36
Two Move 47%Yellow Submarine 53%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 49:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerWoE
50% · 54 games56% · 170 games
KezShigetsu
Kez
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBb3px
42% · 167 games55% · 147 games
Doommangekyou
Doom
Puck
PuckAinkrad
44% · 416 games47% · 106 games
EarthshakerRain
Earthshaker
Dazzle
DazzleHtrd
49% · 98 games53% · 453 games
Hoodwinkprblms
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
45% · 304 games58% · 163 games
BaneXakoda
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 59%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2