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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Two Movewin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Two Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 7 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 7 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
queezy · 6 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 6 games
33%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Htrd · 6 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Htrd · 5 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
queezy · 5 games
80%

Zero Tenacity

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 30 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 30 games
43%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 29 games
52%
Bane
Banesignature
MoOz · 23 games
70%
Techies
Techiessignature
dEsire · 23 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 22 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nesfeer · 22 games
55%
Undying
Undyingsignature
MikSa` · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
485 picks · 292 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
347 picks · 144 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
340 picks · 157 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
319 picks · 465 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
295 picks · 298 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 451 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
275 picks · 255 bans
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
268 picks · 195 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% Two Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:20
Two Move 52%Zero Tenacity 48%
The model gave 52% on Two Move — the game was taken by Two Move in 44:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistWoE
51% · 130 games46% · 264 games
Tinybashka
Tiny
Enigma
EnigmaBb3px
58% · 96 games47% · 96 games
Dark SeerNefrit
Dark Seer
Pangolier
PangolierAinkrad
52% · 410 games53% · 303 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
46% · 288 games47% · 210 games
Rubickraregods
Rubick
Dazzle
DazzleHtrd
48% · 133 games51% · 184 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct45:39
Two Move 57%Zero Tenacity 43%
The model gave 57% on Two Move — the game was taken by Two Move in 55:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerWoE
69% · 14 games46% · 167 games
Terrorbladebashka
Terrorblade
Enigma
EnigmaBb3px
59% · 74 games39% · 283 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAinkrad
54% · 378 games49% · 109 games
Slarkerase
Slark
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
51% · 554 games38% · 309 games
Dark Willowraregods
Dark Willow
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorHtrd
59% · 124 games46% · 276 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 51%
Series resultTwo Move 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2