UALEIKUMNIHAO vs qualifiers enjoyers — prediction DPC2S2ВЕЗО · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

UALEIKUMNIHAOwin 2:0

series probability

60%40%

probability at match start · final 2:0

qualifiers enjoyersloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UALEIKUMNIHAO

No games played over 6 months.

qualifiers enjoyers

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

790 picks · 534 bans

51%

Tiny

561 picks · 404 bans

52%

Tusk

539 picks · 439 bans

49%

Treant Protector

532 picks · 574 bans

56%

Nature's Prophet

427 picks · 697 bans

56%

Snapfire

402 picks · 296 bans

45%

Death Prophet

395 picks · 774 bans

50%

Ember Spirit

367 picks · 826 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)73% vs 63%

Hero pool strength50% UALEIKUMNIHAO

Head-to-head0 – 1

Model total60% UALEIKUMNIHAO

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct27:8

UALEIKUMNIHAO 54%qualifiers enjoyers 46%

The model gave 54% on UALEIKUMNIHAO — the game was taken by UALEIKUMNIHAO in 20:16.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

Nature's ProphetPalantimos

67% · 5 games53% · 48 games

Anti-MageWoE