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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanwin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Atlantisloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UD Vessuwan

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
AlaCrity · 2 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Meracle · 2 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Jhocam · 2 games
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
inYourdreaM · 2 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Meracle · 2 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Jhocam · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
AlaCrity · 2 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
inYourdreaM · 2 games
50%

Atlantis

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
406 picks · 412 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
384 picks · 374 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
378 picks · 257 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
295 picks · 304 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
249 picks · 297 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
236 picks · 123 bans
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 150 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
201 picks · 562 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Atlantis
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Atlantis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:23
UD Vessuwan 46%Atlantis 54%
The model gave 54% on Atlantis — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 50:28.
Game 2prediction correct10:26
UD Vessuwan 46%Atlantis 54%
The model gave 54% on Atlantis — the game was taken by Atlantis in 26:32.
Game 3prediction missed45:40
UD Vessuwan 46%Atlantis 54%
The model gave 54% on Atlantis — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 1:07:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtlantis · 54%
Series resultUD Vessuwan 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3