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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Carstenszloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UD Vessuwan

Rubick
Rubick
boombell · 9 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
boombell · 9 games
22%
Tiny
Tiny
Beebie · 8 games
38%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
LionaX · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
boombell · 7 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Beebie · 6 games
17%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
boombell · 6 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
boombell · 6 games
33%

Carstensz

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
789 picks · 549 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
566 picks · 399 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
526 picks · 568 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 435 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
448 picks · 728 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
416 picks · 808 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
404 picks · 293 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 853 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% Carstensz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Carstensz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:4
UD Vessuwan 49%Carstensz 51%
The model gave 51% on Carstensz — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 22:36.
Game 2prediction missed31:13
UD Vessuwan 49%Carstensz 51%
The model gave 51% on Carstensz — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 33:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteCarstensz · 51%
Series resultUD Vessuwan 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2