Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HHorizonloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
UD Vessuwan
Rubick
boombell · 15 games
Tiny
Beebie · 12 games
Snapfire
LionaX · 11 games
Mirana
boombell · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Beebie · 10 games
Treant Protector
LionaX · 8 games
Undyingsignature
LionaX · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
LionaX · 7 games
Horizon
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1005 picks · 673 bans
Tiny
658 picks · 481 bans
Nature's Prophet
607 picks · 957 bans
Tusk
556 picks · 439 bans
Snapfire
523 picks · 357 bans
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1163 bans
Treant Protector
505 picks · 494 bans
Disruptor
502 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Horizon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Horizon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:10
UD Vessuwan 48%Horizon 52%
The model gave 52% on Horizon — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 39:37.
Game 2prediction missed43:29
UD Vessuwan 48%Horizon 52%
The model gave 52% on Horizon — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 56:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteHorizon · 52%
Series resultUD Vessuwan 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2