Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
IHC Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
UD Vessuwan
Rubick
boombell · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Beebie · 14 games
Mirana
LionaX · 13 games
Tiny
Beebie · 13 games
Undyingoften banned
LionaX · 13 games
Snapfire
LionaX · 12 games
Crystal Maiden
LionaX · 10 games
Tusk
boombell · 10 games
IHC Esports
Rubick
ace12 · 10 games
Miranasignature
Se · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
423 · 8 games
Tusksignature
ace12 · 8 games
Skywrath Mage
ace12 · 7 games
Broodmotheroften banned
423 · 5 games
Disruptor
Se · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
696 picks · 487 bans
Doom
565 picks · 1093 bans
Techies
565 picks · 612 bans
Disruptor
556 picks · 501 bans
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1218 bans
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1035 bans
Enchantress
460 picks · 667 bans
Pangolier
456 picks · 912 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% IHC Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% IHC Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:21
UD Vessuwan 43%IHC Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenKNP
Alchemist423
Ember SpiritBeebie
MorphlingSancity
Batriderboombell
Magnuseleven
DisruptorLionaX
Techiesace12
49% · 119 games
PugnaSe
Game 2prediction correct16:38
UD Vessuwan 44%IHC Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on IHC Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 50:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc WardenKNP
Ember SpiritSancity
Storm SpiritBeebie
Bloodseeker423
Batriderboombell
Marseleven
UndyingLionaX
Shadow Demonace12
44% · 204 games
SilencerSe
Model check result
Model favoriteIHC Esports · 65%
Series resultIHC Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2