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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Myth Avenue Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UD Vessuwan

Rubick
Rubick
boombell · 7 games
43%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Jhocam · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
Beebie · 6 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
LionaX · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
boombell · 5 games
20%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Beebie · 5 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
boombell · 5 games
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LionaX · 4 games
25%

Myth Avenue Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Hishge · 16 games
81%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
RR · 9 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 8 games
63%
Lina
Linasignature
xsilearn · 8 games
88%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Meracle · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Hishge · 6 games
83%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Meracle · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
540 picks · 358 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
504 picks · 493 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
491 picks · 425 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
371 picks · 446 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
355 picks · 349 bans
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
323 picks · 165 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
289 picks · 184 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
287 picks · 710 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 47%
Hero pool strength66% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Myth Avenue Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:27
UD Vessuwan 42%Myth Avenue Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 36:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBeebie
41% · 211 games55% · 173 games
Nature's ProphetMeracle
Nature's Prophet
Bristleback
BristlebackKNP
53% · 24 games55% · 153 games
Leshracxsilearn
Leshrac
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLionaX
46% · 98 games50% · 43 games
Centaur Warrunnerzeal
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
Rubickboombell
50% · 283 games58% · 54 games
Dark WillowHishge
Dark Willow
51% · 193 games
Treant ProtectorRR
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct15:22
UD Vessuwan 41%Myth Avenue Gaming 59%
The model gave 59% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 32:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerKNP
50% · 62 games61% · 28 games
Lone DruidMeracle
Lone Druid
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBeebie
38% · 165 games56% · 197 games
Leshracxsilearn
Leshrac
Mirana
MiranaLionaX
48% · 156 games55% · 55 games
Magnuszeal
Magnus
Tusk
Tuskboombell
45% · 211 games51% · 76 games
Dark WillowHishge
Dark Willow
56% · 238 games
Treant ProtectorRR
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteMyth Avenue Gaming · 61%
Series resultMyth Avenue Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2