Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
UD Vessuwan
Snapfire
Jhocam · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Meracle · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
inYourdreaM · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
AlaCrity · 2 games
Earthshaker
Jhocam · 2 games
Marcioften banned
boombell · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Meracle · 2 games
Rubick
boombell · 2 games
Polaris Esports
Undyingoften banned
Force · 9 games
Linasignature
Mac · 8 games
Marcisignature
Boomy · 8 games
Lich
Eyyou · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 5 games
Tuskoften banned
Boomy · 5 games
Viperoften banned
Force · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
418 picks · 427 bans
Rubick
402 picks · 271 bans
Tiny
402 picks · 384 bans
Mirana
305 picks · 311 bans
Treant Protector
267 picks · 317 bans
Snapfire
244 picks · 130 bans
Crystal Maiden
218 picks · 153 bans
Ember Spirit
217 picks · 582 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength60% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:29
UD Vessuwan 39%Polaris Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 37:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreKNP
Nature's ProphetMac
Dragon KnightBeebie
WeaverAkashi
Batridertnt
BrewmasterBok
SnapfireLionaX
RikiJing
Tuskboombell
Silencercml
Game 2prediction correct9:41
UD Vessuwan 40%Polaris Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeKNP
Arc WardenAkashi
PangolierBeebie
DoomBok
Centaur Warrunnertnt
Primal BeastMac
Rubickboombell
TinyJing
RikiLionaX
Death Prophetcml
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 71%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2