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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SPAWN Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UD Vessuwan

Rubick
Rubick
boombell · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Jhocam · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
Beebie · 6 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
LionaX · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
boombell · 6 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
boombell · 5 games
20%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Beebie · 5 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
LionaX · 5 games
40%

SPAWN Team

Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 18 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
TraVins · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 15 games
47%
Marci
Marcioften banned
dalul · 12 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
TraVins · 12 games
42%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Jikroy · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 11 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
TraVins · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
595 picks · 389 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
532 picks · 520 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
525 picks · 432 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
412 picks · 490 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
379 picks · 369 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
347 picks · 184 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
312 picks · 757 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 202 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% SPAWN Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% SPAWN Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:8
UD Vessuwan 45%SPAWN Team 55%
The model gave 55% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 29:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaKNP
52% · 216 games57% · 78 games
LifestealerJikroy
Lifestealer
Batrider
BatriderBeebie
47% · 187 games50% · 277 games
TuskMamangDaya
Tusk
Undying
UndyingLionaX
46% · 209 games52% · 228 games
MarciRed
Marci
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkboombell
44% · 239 games48% · 57 games
Dark Willowdalul
Dark Willow
56% · 211 games
Treant ProtectorTraVins
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct17:38
UD Vessuwan 46%SPAWN Team 54%
The model gave 54% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 59:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidKNP
54% · 38 games53% · 134 games
Monkey KingJikroy
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierBeebie
52% · 415 games55% · 155 games
BatriderMamangDaya
Batrider
Rubick
Rubickboombell
50% · 402 games42% · 145 games
DoomRed
Doom
Omniknight
OmniknightLionaX
44% · 61 game50% · 243 games
Tuskdalul
Tusk
50% · 239 games
MiranaTraVins
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct15:26
UD Vessuwan 46%SPAWN Team 54%
The model gave 54% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 47:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanKNP
47% · 109 games48% · 147 games
Monkey KingJikroy
Monkey King
Snapfire
SnapfireBeebie
49% · 316 games55% · 107 games
Primal BeastMamangDaya
Primal Beast
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLionaX
56% · 256 games43% · 76 games
ViperRed
Viper
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidboombell
50% · 124 games52% · 286 games
Tuskdalul
Tusk
48% · 189 games
MiranaTraVins
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteSPAWN Team · 57%
Series resultSPAWN Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3