The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanwin 1:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:0
SPAWN Teamloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
UD Vessuwan
Undyingoften banned
LionaX · 14 games
Rubick
boombell · 12 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
KNP · 9 games
Batrideroften banned
boombell · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
Beebie · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 7 games
Miranasignature
LionaX · 7 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 7 games
SPAWN Team
Pangoliersignature
MamangDaya · 10 games
Windrangersignature
Jikroy · 10 games
Clockwerk
TraVins · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 8 games
Techiesoften banned
dalul · 8 games
Primal Beastoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
dalul · 7 games
Terrorbladesignature
Jikroy · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
478 picks · 516 bans
Rubick
450 picks · 216 bans
Batrider
403 picks · 670 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 619 bans
Morphling
335 picks · 710 bans
Timbersaw
333 picks · 770 bans
Spirit Breaker
318 picks · 328 bans
Undying
316 picks · 522 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% SPAWN Team
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total56% SPAWN Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:25
UD Vessuwan 48%SPAWN Team 52%
The model gave 52% on SPAWN Team — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 43:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeKNP
Dragon KnightMamangDaya
BeastmasterBeebie
Spectre458
Ember SpiritFearless
DawnbreakerRed
Snapfireboombell
Liondalul
Elder TitanLionaX
PhoenixTraVins
Model check result
Model favoriteSPAWN Team · 56%
Series resultUD Vessuwan 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1