Студенческая лига 2022 Dota 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
УГНТУloss 0:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
УрФУwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
УГНТУ
No games played over 6 months.
УрФУ
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
472 picks · 655 bans
Tiny
468 picks · 441 bans
Bane
452 picks · 275 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 564 bans
Dragon Knight
407 picks · 487 bans
Storm Spirit
400 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 567 bans
Grimstroke
344 picks · 295 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% УГНТУ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% УГНТУ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
УГНТУ 50%УрФУ 50%
The model gave 50% on УГНТУ — the game was taken by УрФУ.
Model check result
Model favoriteУГНТУ · 50%
Series resultУрФУ 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1