IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Украинаwin 1:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Филиппиныloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Украина
Batrideroften banned
Kidaro · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Филиппины
Beastmasteroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
lil pleb · 1 game
Lion
CTOMAHEH1 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
474 picks · 506 bans
Rubick
452 picks · 217 bans
Batrider
398 picks · 668 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 615 bans
Morphling
337 picks · 708 bans
Timbersaw
329 picks · 765 bans
Undying
314 picks · 524 bans
Storm Spirit
313 picks · 645 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Филиппины
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Филиппины
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Украина 47%Филиппины 53%
The model gave 53% on Филиппины — the game was taken by Украина.
Model check result
Model favoriteФилиппины · 53%
Series resultУкраина 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1