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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ukrainian Boysloss 0:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ukrainian Boys

No games played over 6 months.

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 20 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 17 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Covisnine · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
bashka · 12 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 10 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
389 picks · 298 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
321 picks · 731 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
312 picks · 167 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
308 picks · 296 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
293 picks · 788 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
267 picks · 616 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
265 picks · 533 bans
57%
Marci
Marci
245 picks · 484 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Ukrainian Boys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:41
Ukrainian Boys 17%Nemiga Gaming 83%
The model gave 83% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 29:33.
Game 2prediction correct9:44
Ukrainian Boys 17%Nemiga Gaming 83%
The model gave 83% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 83%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2