Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ukumariwin 2:1series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lavaloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ukumari
Undyingsignature
Gardick · 20 games
Puckoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
Marcisignature
Thiolicor · 17 games
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 16 games
Death Prophetsignature
Vitaly · 13 games
Tiny
Thiolicor · 12 games
Tusksignature
Thiolicor · 12 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lumière · 11 games
Lava
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Lich
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
405 picks · 410 bans
Tiny
384 picks · 373 bans
Rubick
376 picks · 256 bans
Mirana
295 picks · 304 bans
Treant Protector
248 picks · 297 bans
Snapfire
235 picks · 121 bans
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
201 picks · 560 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 75%
Hero pool strength54% Ukumari
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:24
Ukumari 29%Lava 71%
The model gave 71% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 34:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingJP
DawnbreakerJimmyCoff666
Bounty HunterAlone
BroodmotherH1j4ck
RubickKiri
Primal BeastYor
Game 2prediction missed43:29
Ukumari 29%Lava 71%
The model gave 71% on Lava — the game was taken by Ukumari in 50:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the LightAlone
ClockwerkJimmyCoff666
SpectreJP
Centaur WarrunnerH1j4ck
RubickKiri
Treant ProtectorYor
Game 3prediction missed36:17
Ukumari 31%Lava 69%
The model gave 69% on Lava — the game was taken by Ukumari in 34:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendAlone
DawnbreakerJimmyCoff666
TerrorbladeJP
SnapfireH1j4ck
SilencerYor
TuskKiri
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 83%
Series resultUkumari 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3