Всероссийские студенческие соревнования билайна 2023 по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs predictionUUltimate.teamwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Derzhawinloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ultimate.team
No games played over 6 months.
Derzhawin
Bounty Hunter
smN · 1 game
Magnus
Tabletkee · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Kom4rt · 1 game
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Fezor · 1 game
Techies
Fezor · 1 game
Venomanceroften banned
smN · 1 game
Winter Wyvern
Tabletkee · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
213 picks · 270 bans
Pangolier
179 picks · 384 bans
Sven
177 picks · 253 bans
Earthshaker
165 picks · 164 bans
Grimstroke
162 picks · 153 bans
Dark Willow
160 picks · 68 bans
Earth Spirit
153 picks · 231 bans
Skywrath Mage
151 picks · 85 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Ultimate.team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Ultimate.team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Ultimate.team 52%Derzhawin 48%
The model gave 52% on Ultimate.team — the game was taken by Ultimate.team.
Game 2prediction correct
Ultimate.team 52%Derzhawin 48%
The model gave 52% on Ultimate.team — the game was taken by Ultimate.team.
Model check result
Model favoriteUltimate.team · 52%
Series resultUltimate.team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2