Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Unity Esportsloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Unity Esports
No games played over 6 months.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
759 picks · 487 bans
Tiny
540 picks · 388 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 443 bans
Treant Protector
531 picks · 581 bans
Nature's Prophet
411 picks · 617 bans
Snapfire
390 picks · 273 bans
Death Prophet
379 picks · 664 bans
Ember Spirit
356 picks · 765 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Unity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:37
Unity Esports 29%PuckChamp 71%
The model gave 71% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 45:41.
Game 2prediction correct8:31
Unity Esports 29%PuckChamp 71%
The model gave 71% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 33:53.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 71%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2