Elite League Season 2 - Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
UpStarswin 1:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:0
AGArea gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
UpStars
No games played over 6 months.
Area gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 218 bans
Tiny
435 picks · 638 bans
Batrider
419 picks · 726 bans
Centaur Warrunner
408 picks · 581 bans
Gyrocopter
404 picks · 363 bans
Rubick
391 picks · 164 bans
Pangolier
375 picks · 799 bans
Shadow Demon
343 picks · 959 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% UpStars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Area gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
UpStars 47%Area gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Area gaming — the game was taken by UpStars.
Model check result
Model favoriteArea gaming · 53%
Series resultUpStars 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1