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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
uralanloss 0:2
series probability
9%91%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Two Movewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

uralan

Mirana
Mirana
waveformn · 4 games
75%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
monodrama · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
waveformn · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
waveformn · 2 games
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 2 games
100%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
cutie · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
100%

Two Move

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 6 games
100%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
queezy · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Bb3px · 5 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Htrd · 5 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
queezy · 5 games
80%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
464 picks · 284 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
310 picks · 125 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
309 picks · 133 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 455 bans
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
286 picks · 287 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
281 picks · 414 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
273 picks · 227 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
267 picks · 365 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 44%
Hero pool strength59% Two Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Two Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:24
uralan 24%Two Move 76%
The model gave 76% on Two Move — the game was taken by Two Move in 18:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMiyaoo
47% · 155 games43% · 150 games
DoomWoE
Doom
Necrophos
NecrophosPanda
58% · 107 games57% · 414 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Tiny
Tinycutie
44% · 371 game59% · 68 games
EnigmaBb3px
Enigma
Mirana
Miranawaveformn
48% · 200 games45% · 206 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Warlock
Warlockmonodrama
50% · 162 games52% · 157 games
Winter WyvernHtrd
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct26:51
uralan 23%Two Move 77%
The model gave 77% on Two Move — the game was taken by Two Move in 48:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone Druidcutie
53% · 114 games48% · 131 game
KezWoE
Kez
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMiyaoo
50% · 328 games48% · 85 games
Dark SeerBb3px
Dark Seer
Huskar
HuskarPanda
48% · 92 games55% · 248 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Mirana
Miranawaveformn
51% · 231 game50% · 425 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernmonodrama
51% · 191 game45% · 67 games
DazzleHtrd
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteTwo Move · 91%
Series resultTwo Move 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2